Aveanna Healthcare What You Need to Know from AVAH‘s 2Q Earnings & Follow-Up with Management

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

14 August 2026

Aveanna Healthcare

What You Need to Know from AVAH’s 2Q Earnings &

Follow-Up with Management

Neutral

AVAH, AVAH US

Price (13 Aug 26):$11.29

Managed Care and Facilities

Yesterday, AVAH reported a strong 2Q earnings beat and raised 2026 guidance by

~7% (see our takeaways here), with the earnings outperformance and improved

outlook for 2H26 driven by favorable segment-level growth headlined by PDS.

Beyond the 2Q print, AVAH provided important updates regarding favorable PDS

rate updates in CA (~7% of footprint) set to go into effect January 1, 2027 and a

+100 bps increase to the company’s LT growth outlook driven by favorable

improvements to M&A (+225 bps) and “organic” growth (+200 bps) partially

offset by the removal of explicit VBC contributions (-325 bps) that are now rolled

into the company’s now-combined organic growth definition. Across segmentlevel changes, this also included improvements to PDS (+150 bps) and HHH (+300

bps), driving to a ~150 bps improvement to the company’s “core” growth

algorithm. We note that when using updated midpoints across segments on a

weighted average basis based on % share of TTM revenue, we get a +6.1% blended

growth rate (see Figure 2 below). Netting out these changes, AVAH now expects

a higher forward contribution from M&A (~35%-40% vs prior ~15%) and a

lower contribution from organic growth (~60%-65% vs prior ~85%), with

mgmt providing encouraging commentary regarding stronger segment-level

trends and expectations of scaling M&A efforts within HHH while continuing

to add PDS capacity following the rate unlock in CA. This includes notable

whitespace opportunity within HHH given the larger relative runway for

geographic expansion vs PDS given AVAH’s existing scale in pediatric services.

Key takeaways from the earnings call and our follow-up with mgmt are below.

Figure 1: AVAH Long-Term (LT) Guidance Figure 2: AVAH Segment-Level Guidance

Updates

*Using LT guidance midpoints

Source: Company reports, J.P. Morgan analysis.

*Using LT guidance midpoints

Source: Company reports, J.P. Morgan analysis.

AVAH’s 2026 guidance raise reflected core organic execution exiting 2Q,

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