Mexico weekly: Banxico minutes – balancing an on-hold equilibrium

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Latin America Economic Research

14 August 2026

Mexico weekly

Banxico minutes – balancing an on-hold equilibrium

See our full research on Economics: Mexico

EM, Economics Research

Next week’s minutes to back our on-hold call for this year and next...

Gabriel Lozano

… as board continues to weigh a benign backdrop against external

uncertainty

(52-55) 5540-9558

Banco J.P.Morgan, S.A., Institución de Banca

Múltiple, J.P.Morgan Grupo Financiero

June IP rises 0.2%samr, in line with expectations but below our 0.7%

Santiago Homberg Saury

Next week’s June retail sales print should fall 0.3%samr

(52-55) 5540-9499

J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P.

Morgan Grupo Financiero

Next week, the minutes of the August COPOM meeting, where Banxico held rates

at 6.5% and left forward guidance unchanged, should offer a clearer view of how

board members are weighing domestic conditions (inflation close to target and

economic slack) against the risk of a Fed hike this year.

Regardless of the board’s thinking, we continue to believe the window to ease has

passed, as we expect inflation to rebound in the coming months, while also noting

that Banxico has room to weather a potential one-off Fed hike. In addition to the

minutes, we expect June retail sales to post a 0.3%samr decline, reflecting some

of the weakness the 2Q26 flash GDP pointed to toward the end of the quarter.

Consistent with that view, June industrial production rose 0.2%samr this week,

below what the flash GDP had implied.

Banxico minutes preview: Discussion should reaffirm our

on-hold call

Last week, Banxico announced its unanimous decision to hold rates at 6.5%, in a

statement that left its forward guidance largely unchanged and continued to signal

a prolonged pause. The statement reinforced our on-hold call for both 2026 and

2027, as the meeting provided an important opportunity for the Board to adjust its

guidance and open the door to additional policy moves, either to the downside or

the upside. This was particularly relevant given the risk of a Fed hike (both the

market and our US team expect a 25bp increase in December), as well as the

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