Broadstone Net Lease: No Estimate Changes, But Quality, Visibility, and Upside Warrant Higher Multiple

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

14 August 2026

Broadstone Net Lease

No Estimate Changes, But Quality, Visibility, and Upside

Warrant Higher Multiple

Overweight

BNL, BNL US

Price (13 Aug 26):$21.24

▲Price Target (Dec-27):$26.00

Prior (Dec-26):$23.00

We updated our BNL model post 2Q earnings, and our bottom-line AFFO/share

estimates did not change. However, we do think that the quality of the earnings

story here has stepped up and warrants a better valuation. We say this because our

estimates remained the same despite lower leverage and more visibility, and we

think there are several areas of conservatism that leave room for upside. For 2026,

our company-defined AFFO/share estimate remains $1.57 (+4.6% y/y), slightly

above Bloomberg consensus at $1.55 and at the top of management’s $1.55-1.57

guidance range. For 2027, our estimate remains $1.65 (+5.1% y/y), which is in line

with Bloomberg consensus. Preliminarily, we estimate 2028 AFFO growth to be

almost 6% as the full impact of BNL’s Colorado data center deal takes hold. Note

that our model also includes the company’s recent equity offering, which should

net it about $250 million.

Our NAV/share estimate is $18.28 after assuming a blended cap rate of 7.1% on

the portfolio. At the current stock price, we calculate an implied cap rate of 6.4%.

Using our DCF model, we are establishing our 2027 year-end price target of $26/

share (up from a year-end 2026 target of $23/share). We continue to rate shares of

BNL Overweight and still see it as a top idea in our coverage universe. We view

the company’s data center opportunity set as particularly compelling, supported by

the recent Colorado deal and the ongoing Project Triboro land assemblage in

Pennsylvania. Together, these provide strong visibility into 2027. Our bottom-line

earnings CAGR from 2026 to 2030E is about 4.8%, and we think there could be

further upside to this if deal volume proves more robust; this level of growth should

also be above its peer group average. We think there is still room for valuation to

expand, and we think at the current stock price BNL threads the needle of being

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