Latin America Economic Research

Research evidence excerpt

Diego W. Pereira (1-212) 834-4321

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Lucila Barbeito (54-11) 4348-7229

JPMorgan Chase Bank Sucursal Buenos Aires

Argentina

Latin America Economic Research

14 August 2026

Figure 1: National CPI

%-pt, contribution to headline CPI

Seasonal prices

Regulated prices

2.5

Disinflation stalled in July, with headline CPI printing

at 2.1% m/m, above expectations

Core CPI printed in line with our forecast at 1.8% m/

m

1.5

Dec-26 inflation forecast at 29.5%oya

0.5

Early activity data for June and July continue to portray a mixed picture

0.0

Argentina relaxed USD lending regulations this week. The

government is moving to relax banks’ ability to lend in US

dollars to corporate entities, as part of its broader push toward

a bi-monetary financial system. Under the existing rule, banks

were allowed to use USD deposits to fund only USD-generating companies. The new measure would broaden eligibility to

all legal entities (excluding individuals), while banks would

still need to comply with macroprudential (capital), liquidity,

and credit-risk requirements.

USD lending to companies will be capped at 15% of total

deposits. The current stock of USD corporate lending stands

at roughly US$24bn, implying additional lending capacity of

about US$5.8bn at current deposit levels.

The new measure comes as peso credit remains constrained

by high interest rates, elevated NPLs, and ongoing monetary

absorption. The government therefore sees USD lending as a

way to support lower peso rates and provide investment and

working-capital financing without creating additional peso

liquidity. In addition, policymakers expect the flexibilization

of USD lending to give traction to the ongoing formalization

of “under-the-mattress” dollars.

JPMORGAN

Meat prices

2.0

1.0

-0.5

Jan-25

Apr-25

Jul-25

Oct-25

Jan-26

Apr-26

Meanwhile, core inflation accelerated to 1.8% m/m (a 1.2pp

contribution), in line with our forecast, from 1.6% m/m the

prior month and versus the prior three-month average of

1.9%. Our preferred measure of underlying inflation, core exfood, printed at 2.1% m/m, slightly below the prior threemonth average of 2.2%. The BCRA’s core CPI metric

…