Mexico

Research evidence excerpt

Gabriel Lozano (52-55) 5540-9558

Banco J.P.Morgan, S.A., Institución de Banca Múltiple, J.P.Morgan Grupo Financiero

Santiago Homberg Saury (52-55) 5540-9499

J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P. Morgan Grupo Financiero

Mexico

Next week’s minutes to back our on-hold call for this

year and next...

… as board continues to weigh a benign backdrop

against external uncertainty

June IP rises 0.2%samr, in line with expectations but

below our 0.7%

Next week’s June retail sales print should fall

0.3%samr

Next week, the minutes of the August COPOM meeting,

where Banxico held rates at 6.5% and left forward guidance

unchanged, should offer a clearer view of how board members are weighing domestic conditions (inflation close to target and economic slack) against the risk of a Fed hike this

year.

Latin America Economic Research

14 August 2026

only how much weight the Board assigns to the Fed, but also

how that consideration factors into the policy decision. In the

past, some Board members have expressed concerns about

Fed actions, while others have been more dismissive. The

characterization of growth will also be key. Flash GDP

showed a respectable, albeit not particularly strong (given the

underlying details), 6.2%saar rebound in 2Q26, yet the statement continued to note that “economic slack is expected to

continue throughout the forecast horizon and significant

downside risks to economic activity persist.” Finally, concerns about the recent increase in long-term inflation expectations might also factor in.

Figure 1: Ex-ante policy rate vs inflation gap

8

Ex-ante

6

Inflation gap*

4

Regardless of the board’s thinking, we continue to believe the

window to ease has passed, as we expect inflation to rebound

in the coming months, while also noting that Banxico has

room to weather a potential one-off Fed hike. In addition to

the minutes, we expect June retail sales to post a 0.3%samr

decline, reflecting some of the weakness the 2Q26 flash GDP

pointed to toward the end of the quarter. Consistent with that

view, June industrial production rose 0.2%samr this week,

below what the flash GDP had implied.

Banxico minutes preview: Discussion

should reaffirm our on-hold call

…