HG & HY Food for Thought: A Beefy Week - Let‘s Put Another Pattie on the Barbe!

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Credit Research

14 August 2026

HG & HY Food for Thought

A Beefy Week - Let’s Put Another Pattie on the Barbie!

The S&P continues to make new highs while bonds tightened on lower

risk of a hike in Sept. The S&P gained +0.5% from last Friday’s close, to

another record high, driven by renewed TMT/AI strength as hyperscaler

earnings continued to validate elevated AI capex. Tame July inflation (CPI

core +0.2% M/M, +2.5% Y/Y) reduced near-term Fed-hike expectations

(market pricing in 30% of a hike in Sept, but JPM’s Feroli looking for nothing

until a potential Dec hike). Brent ended Thursday ~$87/bbl, providing some

relief to the inflation outlook. Next week, we get Housing Starts (est 1,350k,

prior 1,427k) and Initial Jobless Claims (est 210k, prior 209k). Treasuries bull

steepened on the week given macro data — the 5yr -8bps to 4.32% and the

10yr -3bps to 4.64%. The JULI & HG Food/Bev both returned +0.2%.

JPHY returned +0.35%, with HY Food/Bev relatively in line at +0.37%.

BBs were the best performers by ratings: As +0.2%, BBBs +0.3%, BBs

+0.42%, Bs +0.33%, and CCCs +0.03%.

On the news front this past week, BGS and JBS announced new CEOs,

BCULC/QSR is paying ~$200mn to reduce 3G’s stake, CPB filed an

automatic mixed securities shelf with a slight tweak of wording, DAR is

selling ~$150mn of production tax credits, FLO is reportedly seeking to

divest its Tastykake unit, PZZA was downgraded by S&P to B+ from BB-,

and TSN raised $1bn for a tender offer of up to $1.2bn and announced a

network restructuring for its beef business. On the earnings front, ARMK and

JBS beat while BGS and PFGC were mixed and RISBAK, MARS, and

SIMFOO (all Private) reported. Next week we have earnings from SHEARE

(Private). We have included the full 2Q26 HG & HY Consumer, Food, and

Retail Earnings Calendar below.

Figure 1: HG Food/Bev vs Index

Figure 2: HY Food/Bev vs Index

125bps

8.50%

JULI

Food/Bev

HY Index

Food/Bev

8.00%

7.50%

100bps

7.00%

6.50%

75bps

6.00%

5.50%

50bps

5.00%

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Spreads as of August 13th,

2026

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Spreads as of August 13th,

2026

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