Privia Health: Updating Our Estimates

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

11 August 2026

Privia Health

Updating Our Estimates

Overweight

PRVA, PRVA US

Price (10 Aug 26):$22.37

Price Target (Dec-27):$35.00

We are updating our Privia Health model post-2Q26 earnings, which balanced

stronger-than-expected VBC attributed lives growth (+19% y/y to 1.647M) and

continued operating leverage momentum (adj EBITDA margins as % of Care

Margin expanding over 300bps y/y to 28.3%) with a measured raise to FY26

guidance reflecting PRVA’s typical prudence between the outperformance YTD

and tougher y/y comparisons in 2H (see our quick take here). We continue to see

a positive long-term setup for PRVA with the company delivering consistent

quarterly execution amidst a dynamic environment while scaling its geographic

footprint, as well as both AI and M&A representing expanding opportunities to

accelerate this trajectory. In our follow-up conversation, management continued to

emphasize PRVA’s ability to improve adj EBITDA margins above the high end of

the 30-35% long-term target in the next few years, pointing to positive ROI on

existing investments, with areas for further implementation across all books of

business as well as internally. We also believe PRVA remains well positioned to

capitalize on an improved M&A environment in VBC, with the company

leveraging its track record and healthy balance sheet to become a partner of choice

for targets like medical groups, ACOs, and MSOs. Our FY26 adj EBITDA

increases to $152M (up from $148M prior), while our FY27/FY28 estimates are

unchanged at $173M and $202M, respectively. We establish a December 2027

price target of $35 (unchanged from Dec-26 PT) based on a slightly lower ~20x

multiple now applied to our 2028E EBITDA, with the reduced multiple (down

from ~23.75x prior) more in line with PRVA’s historical average.

Managed Care and Facilities

Lisa C. Gill AC

(1-212) 622-6466

Cole Harris

(1-212) 622-9068

John Stansel, CFA

(1-212) 622-0083

Benjamin Rossi

(1-212) 622-9603

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Key Changes (FYE Dec)

Adj. EBITDA - 26E ($ mn)