My 2c on Financials: US Financials Sector Specialist Commentary Banks · Insurance · Diversified Financials

Research evidence excerpt

Rob O'Dwyer - Specialist Sales - US Financials AC

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

North America Specialist Sales

JPMORGAN

11 August 2026

My 2c on Financials

Rob O’Dwyer

Key Highlights

Low volumes, focus on CPI tomorrow

AFRM & KLAR Preview

NDAQ Acquisition

XYZ New Product

Morning – volumes were low yesterday, -40-50% vs the 20dma for most things on my screen, which caused some odd intra-sector

prices yesterday, I think. How do you square cap mkts selling off and alts bid, for example? I’m not sure that there is a strong

throughline on a one-day basis. My suspicion is that there will be a number of days like this in the coming weeks.

From a macro point of view, CPI tomorrow is the big focus and Feroli sees Headline MoM printing +0.12% and Core

MoM printing +0.22%.This equates to 3.4% YoY for Headline and 2.5% YoY for Core. Kasman thinks 0.25+ MoM would be

required to consider shifting towards a more hawkish stance for Sep FOMC). SPX vol continues to not price in much, with a

56bps breakeven for the Friday ATM straddle (which includes both CPI/PPI).

In the land of payments this morning, Connor Allen, has thoughts on AFRM & KLAR ahead of their prints later this

month:

AFRM: Affirm will report F4Q26 earnings on August 27th after market close. The main focus is on FY27 guidance, with

JPMorgan’s base case expecting GMV growth of 28%+, RLTC margins around 4.0%, and adjusted operating margins near 30%.

This guidance is expected to generally align with Street estimates, though growth may be back-half weighted due to Walmart rolloff headwinds in F1Q27. Affirm’s historical guidance has used a “greater than” GMV framework, and the company has

consistently beaten Street GMV estimates by 4.5% over the last eight quarters (implying ~$14bn GMV for 4Q). New growth

vectors include the Intuit partnership (estimated to add ~2ppts to GMV growth), expansion into new geographies, and increased

Affirm Card engagement.

KLAR: Klarna will report 2Q26 earnings on August 18th before market open. JPMorgan is modestly (<1%) below Street

estimates for GMV, revenue, and TMD, reflecting conservative guidance. Since its IPO, Klarna has averaged GMV and revenue

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