J.P. Morgan Municipal Morning Intelligence: $7bn on tap ahead of CPI. Weekly Analytics published.

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Global Markets Strategy

11 August 2026

J.P. Morgan Municipal Morning

Intelligence

$7bn on tap ahead of CPI. Weekly Analytics published.

Tax-Exempt Market Wrap

– The HG muni scale was bumped 1bp from 4 to 11 years and left unchanged

elsewhere on the curve on Monday, outperforming the 3-5bp rise in Treasuries and

driving 10yr (69%) and 30yr (85%) muni/UST ratios to their lowest levels in the past

three weeks. Today, some concession could be required to digest an expected ~$7bn

of tax-exempt issuance, as reinvestment wanes and as yesterday’s fund inflows

remained below the 20-day average for a second session (at +$214mn).

– Yesterday’s BWIC volume was $2.1bn, 12% below the five-week average,

reflecting a slow mid-summer Monday. The hit ratio was flat at 56%, 1% below

average, and traded yields on customer purchases were mostly 1-2bp through ICE

marks, though short-call and money market yields were 3-5bp lower.

– Muni fund inflows rose to $214mn on Monday, but still ran below the 20-day

average. ETF flows returned to positive territory at $61mn ($45mn passive/$16mn

active), with open-end funds gaining $153mn.

Figure 1: Trailing 20-session estimated fund

flow

Figure 2: Daily municipal fund flow

observations

Municipal fund flows ($mn)

1500

Trailing 20 session JPM estimated fund flow

ETF Flow

1000

Open-end Flow

20 Day Avg

500

0

All Muni

Open-end

ETF

Active ETF

Passive ETF

HY Muni

Open-end

ETF

LT Muni

Open-end

ETF

1 Day Flow

214

153

61

16

45

223

0

171

144

27

3 Day Flow

708

391

317

107

209

311

324

-13

482

260

222

5 Day Flow

2,187

629

1,558

439

1,119

528

433

95

1,621

417

1,204

7 Day Flow

3,552

1,573

1,979

638

1,340

915

681

235

2,667

1,154

1,513

-500

Note: Reinvestment capital included

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan.

Note: Reinvestment capital included.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan.