European Natural Gas: Demand & Storage Tracker: LNG upticks, but lower Norwegian flows weigh on injections

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Global Markets Strategy

11 August 2026

European Natural Gas: Demand &

Storage Tracker

LNG upticks, but lower Norwegian flows weigh on

injections

This marks our last regularly scheduled European Natural Gas: Demand &

Storage Tracker. We will resume our publications in September. Thank you for

reading and for your continued engagement. We wish you a wonderful end to

summer.

Global Commodities Research

Demand largely unchanged

Aradhaya Makkar

For the week of August 3-9, total natural gas demand in NWE+UK was 3%

below the previous week, averaging 277 Mcm/day, though broadly flat as

compared to the same period last year, driven by uniform declines in both

residential and non-residential sectors.

Temperatures stabilised across the region last week, with average CDDs

remaining broadly flat at around 7 CDDs in the region. The latest forecasts for

August imply 137 CDDs, or about 0.7stdev above the 10-year normal of 109

CDDs (Figure 1).

At the country level, demand declined (-6% WoW, down 5 Mcm/day) primarily

in the UK, which was single-handedly driven by the decline across the nonresidential sector. Across the continent, residential demand declined by 2

Mcm/day, driven by declines across Germany and France.

Month-to-date in August, demand is averaging 271 Mcm/day, 2% lower YoY

and 47 Mcm/day lower compared to our forecasts.

Figure 1: TTF region June, July, August – CDD evolution

CDDs

270

TTF (Jul)

210

180

TTF (Jun)

TTF (Aug)

150

TTF (Jul) -10yr

120

90

TTF (Aug) -10yr

TTF (Jul) -30yr

TTF (Jun) -10yr

60

TTF (Aug) -30yr

TTF (Jun) -30yr

30

31-Aug-26

24-Aug-26

17-Aug-26

10-Aug-26

27-Jul-26

03-Aug-26

20-Jul-26

13-Jul-26

06-Jul-26

29-Jun-26

22-Jun-26

15-Jun-26

08-Jun-26

01-Jun-26

25-May-26

18-May-26

0

Refers to June, July, August monthly CDD forecast evolution

Source: CWG, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Net injections decline as higher LNG more than offset by

lower Norwegian flows

(44-20) 3493-8246

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

240

Otar Dgebuadze, CFA

During the week, storage injections in the region (NWE+UK) declined by 4%

over the week, averaging 140 Mcm/day, but well below the 197 Mcm/day of

…