Gland Pharma (GLAD.BO): Near-Term Boost from US Launches and Forex; Structural Growth Remains Elusive

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11 Aug 2026 08:28:49 ET │ 14 pages

Gland Pharma (GLAD.BO)

Near-Term Boost from US Launches and Forex; Structural Growth

Remains Elusive

CITI'S TAKE

Gland Pharma’s strong 1QFY27 performance was supported by currency

tailwinds, operating leverage and US launches, with revenue up 20% YoY

and EBITDA margin expanding approximately 300 bps. However, we

estimate constant-currency growth was below 10%. While FY27E should

remain strong, we view management’s 15% four-year organic revenue

CAGR guidance as aggressive given the mature generic injectables market,

rising competition and Gland’s modest ex-Cenexi organic revenue CAGR

of 6%/8% over 5/3 years, despite a favorable currency and a low base.

With the new strategic contracts and larger complex products unlikely to

contribute meaningfully before FY29-FY30, we believe recent growth is

driven more by currency and launch timing than a structural improvement.

We raise our FY27E/FY28E EPS by 28%/10% and our target price to

Rs2,260 (from Rs1,680 previously) by rolling forward the valuation to

March 2028E EPS (from Sept’27E EPS earlier). Maintain Sell.

Sell

Price (11 Aug 26 15:30)

Rs2,930.00

Target price

Rs2,260.00↑

from Rs1,680.00

Expected share price return

-22.9%

Expected dividend yield

0.0%

Expected total return

-22.9%

Market Cap

Rs483,352M

US$5,072M

Vivek Agrawal, CFAAC

1QFY27 results — Revenue grew 20% YoY, aided by favorable currency movements.

We estimate constant-currency growth was below 10%, largely driven by the

launches of Dalbavancin and Multi-Vitamin Injection, including Infuvite under CGT

exclusivity. CDMO and B2B revenue grew approximately 20% and 19% YoY,

respectively. Sequentially, revenue increased 3%, driven by 11% CDMO growth, while

B2B declined 3%. US sales rose 32% YoY on currency benefits and the two key

launches but remained flat QoQ. Gross margin was broadly stable, while operating

leverage drove a 300 bps YoY expansion in EBITDA margin, although it contracted

200 bps QoQ. Cenexi reported revenue of €48 million and EBITDA of €2 million.

Gland Pharma signed three strategic agreements during the quarter — 1) A

manufacturing and supply agreement with a global specialty pharma company

…