European Transport & Logistics: Anchoring the Trends: August Chartbook

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Europe Equity Research

11 August 2026

European Transport & Logistics

Anchoring the Trends: August Chartbook

Anchoring the Trends is a compilation of the key industry data we track for our

various sub-sectors across global air/ocean freight, European road, parcel delivery,

airlines and travel retail. Container freight volumes grew strongly +6% y/y in June

(vs. +5% y/y in May), with container spot rates (SCFI) experiencing a steep

increase of +50% y/y (+40% m/m; vs. May +38% y/y), driven by strong demand,

some pull-forward of inventory driven by customer behaviour linked to the

volatility in bunker fuel prices/ prospective US tariffs; followed by a further +5%

m/m increase in July. Asia-Europe trade lane saw the strongest volume growth in

June at +15% y/y, driven by +17% y/y head-haul and +8% y/y back-haul, while the

strongest m/m increase in rates was experienced on S. America lanes. Air freight

volumes accelerated further in June to +9.6% y/y (vs. May +6.5% y/y), with North

America accelerating to +17% y/y (vs. May +13% y/y), Asia Pacific seeing a slight

acceleration to +10% y/y (vs. May +9% y/y), while Europe growth was sustained

at +7% y/y. Middle East volumes experienced growth for the first time since the

start of the conflict, with volumes +5.6% y/y. Air freight rates continued to rise

+34% y/y (+0.5% m/m; vs. +33% y/y in May), followed by +20% y/y in July.

Maersk announced the return of another Gemini service through the Trans-Suez,

with LinerLytica reported that a COSCO vessel is currently en route for a transit

through the Bab el Mandeb in the coming days, following two years of avoiding

this route. Despite these gradual reintroductions, capacity through the route is still

>80% below 2023 levels. European airline capacity remains constrained on longhaul, with growth now expected flat y/y (vs. +0.5% previously) over the summer

season, and including flat on Transatlantic. Short-haul capacity is unchanged at

+4% y/y. However, in Q4 we see an acceleration in long-haul (vs. short-haul)

driven by stabilisation in the Middle-East and higher Transatlantic/ LatAm growth.

…