Rumo: Mato Grosso Harvest Tracker (Aug. 10): Corn Commercialization at 64% and Soybean Commercialization Reaches 30%

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Latin America Equity Research

11 August 2026

Rumo

Mato Grosso Harvest Tracker (Aug. 10): Corn

Commercialization at 64% and Soybean

Commercialization Reaches 30%

Neutral

RAIL3.SA, RAIL3 BZ

Price (10 Aug 26):R$13.22

Latin American Transportation

The Mato Grosso Agribusiness Institute (IMEA) has released its weekly report,

providing updates on the progress of the soybean and corn harvests, as well as truck

spot freight prices. This note also includes recent relevant news related to Rumo.

Newsflow: Cosan postponed the deadline for binding bids for its stake in

Rumo to early September. According to InvestNews, Cosan has postponed

by about one month the deadline for receiving binding bids in rail operator

Rumo stake, previously expected in early August, pushing submissions to after

Brazil’s Sep. 7th holiday. The move is meant to give potential buyers greater

visibility on Rumo’s latest performance ahead of its 2Q and 1H results release

on August 12, enabling better-informed offers. Reported interested parties

include Cofco and Bunge.

IMEA: Corn. For the 2025/26 season, IMEA maintained its production

estimates for Mato Grosso by 1% at 57.4 million tons. Corn commercialization

reached 64% (+13.7 p.p. m/m), driven by more attractive cereal prices. Despite

the record harvest, growing ethanol plant demand absorbed significant

production, keeping the domestic market competitive with international

prices. However, producers remain cautious for the 2026/27 crop due to El

Niño climate risks and rising production costs. Corn harvest in Mato Grosso

reached 99% of 7.4 million hectares (+2.3 p.p. w/w), with favorable weather

conditions enabling faster field operations and keeping the harvest 0.4 p.p.

ahead of last season. Five regions have completed harvesting, while SouthCentral and Southeast regions are expected to conclude in the coming weeks,

reinforcing positive production outlook for the 2025/26 crop. Corn prices fell

across CME (-1.8%), Cepea Campinas (-0.4%), and B3 (-1.7%) last week,

pressured by favorable U.S. weather and increased grain availability in the

market.

IMEA: Soybean. Production estimates for the 2026/27 crop were maintained

…