Good 2Q26 – 5% Beat Driven by Consumer Finance

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Latin America Equity Research

11 August 2026

BTG

Good 2Q26 – 5% Beat Driven by Consumer Finance

Overweight

BPAC11.SA, BPAC11 BZ

Price (10 Aug 26):R$53.86

Latin American Financials

BTG Pactual reported better-than-expected earnings of R$ 5,142mn (or R$ 1.33

EPS), with 26.7% ROE and growing 23% Y-o-Y. Yes, this is a slowdown from the

prior >40% pace on a tougher base, but still 5-6% better than JPMe and Bloomberg

consensus at R$4.9-4.8bn and the +7% Q-o-Q growth is way better than several

buy-side that had very timid sequential improvement. Overall good quarter that

supports our capital market over traditional banks view into a potential worsening

credit cycle. In particular, we note BTG de-risking its SME book by -19% Q-o-Q

and building higher provisions at the bank level, while continuing to deliver

diversified revenue growth. Still, there are a few points we need to better

understand. Overall, we highlight weaker-than-expected wealth management (9% vs. JPMe) as the main negative surprise, followed by a 5% miss in sales and

trading and weak but expected IB (down 33% Q-o-Q and 4% below JPMe). Those

misses were more than offset by very solid consumer banking (+29% vs. JPMe and

up 37% Q-o-Q). This line consolidates Banco Pan, but it has also been helped by

private payroll loan growth and improved auto lending, per company commentary,

as well as 48% consolidation of “MeuTudo,” which should have impacted

(proportionally) both revenues and the loan book. Still, loans in this segment are

up only 6% Q-o-Q to R$78bn (and payroll only up 11% Q-o-Q), while revenues

grew 37% Q-o-Q, and we need to understand how the opportunity cost of this

investment is being accounted for. Another point of attention was Banco

Nacional’s very strong ~R$1bn print, which always draws our attention. Finally,

we also note better-than-expected expenses (2% better than JPMe), up 13% Y-o-Y,

which is below the 16% Y-o-Y revenue growth in the period. All in all, it was

another good quarter with equity growing in line with earnings and +20bps CET1

ratio, and investors will likely focus on wealth management lower yields and

consumer finance sustainability.…