China Online Lending: 2Q26 preview: We prefer Lufax despite the rally; 3Q headwinds building

Research evidence excerpt

Asia Pacific Equity Research

11 August 2026

China Online Lending

2Q26 preview: We prefer Lufax despite the rally; 3Q

headwinds building

Lufax’s share price rose 10.7% on 10 Aug, outperforming the KWEB by 9ppts.

We attribute the move to positive expectations ahead of its 1H26 results and a

potential H-share trading resumption. Looking ahead, we remain cautious on the

online lending sector, as risk events emerging since end-May could trigger

industry liquidity and regulatory tightening, resulting in higher asset quality risk

and slower loan creation in 3Q-4Q26. At a company level, we expect QFIN to

show broadly stable operating trends in 2Q26 prints, while Lufax’s disclosed

operating data point to improving loan growth and asset quality (link). However,

we believe the market is unlikely to extrapolate this into 3Q due to the abovementioned risk events. Despite Lufax’s recent rally, we reiterate our preference

for Lufax over QFIN, given Lufax's greater resilience towards industry-wide

liquidity tightening, undemanding valuation and improving operating momentum,

while QFIN remains more exposed to retrenchment among smaller platforms

through its ICE business.

• What drove Lufax’s share price performance on Monday? Lufax rose by

10.7% on Monday, outperforming KWEB by 9ppts. We saw no companyspecific news that directly explained the rally. Instead, we believe the move was

driven by: 1) positive expectations ahead of its 1H26 results and management

briefing, which could provide greater clarity on the business and earnings

outlook; and 2) rising expectations for a potential resumption of trading in its

H-shares. In addition, Lufax has a depressed valuation at 0.1x P/B and

relatively limited trading liquidity with ADV of US$1.6mn in the past three

months, so the share price is more sensitive to incremental buying.

Banks & Financial Services

Lincoln Yu AC

(852) 2800 8523

J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/

J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

Katherine Lei AC

(852) 2800-8552

J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/

J.P. Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

Peter Zhang

(852) 2800-8557

J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/

J.P.…