JPM Natural Gas and NGL Reservoir: Permian Takeaway Projects Take Flight, Adding NatGas Volumes to the Supply Picture

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

10 August 2026

JPM Natural Gas and NGL

Reservoir

Permian Takeaway Projects Take Flight, Adding

NatGas Volumes to the Supply Picture

JPM View: In our 2026 E&P and Natural Gas outlook (see link), we adopted a

more cautious view on U.S. natural gas fundamentals in 2026-27 largely driven by

the planned increase in Permian gas takeaway in 2H26 and the impact on natural

gas volumes. This is largely taking place as we speak as Permian natural gas

volumes have increased by 1.4 Bcf/d from 2Q26 levels to 25.7 Bcf/d. The key

takeaway projects include KMI’s GCX expansion, ET’s Hugh Brinson pipeline,

and MPLX, ENB, and TGRP’s Blackcomb project. The GCX expansion was

completed in late May and added 570 MMcf/d of incremental capacity to the Agua

Dulce hub, which serves the Gulf Coast LNG export terminals. The Hugh Brinson

project will bring natural gas volumes from Waha just south of Dallas-Ft. Worth,

connecting to ET’s Gulf Coast pipeline network and LNG export facilities. Phase

I of the project is now complete, with volumes on the system now ramping. On their

2Q26 earnings call, ET noted how natural gas volumes would reach their 1.5 Bcf/d

capacity by September 1. The second phase of the project is targeted for completion

by 1Q27, which should boost capacity to 2.2 Bcf/d by adding incremental

compression. The Blackcomb pipeline will transport natural gas from Waha to

Agua Dulce. This 2.5 Bcf/d project is scheduled to start-up in 2H26, with ENB

noting the commencement of initial commissioning activities in 3Q26. After

averaging a -$3.97 per MMBtu in 2Q26, Waha futures have improved to $1.97 per

MMBtu for the balance of the year, while the Cal27 and Cal28 futures at Waha

stand at $1.90 and $2.12 per MMBtu.

L48 gas production down slightly WoW. L48 gas production was down 0.3%

to 110.8 Bcf/d vs. 111.2 Bcf/d last week, driven by lower production from

Louisiana (-233 MMcf/d) and the Permian (-110 MMcf/d). On a monthly basis,

L48 gas production has averaged 110.7 Bcf/d over August MTD, which is up

0.2% vs. the July average of 110.4 Bcf/d, as growth from Appalachia (+271

…