G10 FX Daily Report - 10th August 2026. Mon Aug 10 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Matt Pheasant AC

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch

G10 FX

EUR

Sales & Trading

JPMORGAN

10 August 2026

These days data is never that straightforward, remember when you could just trade the headline

first and then think later??!! A muddled payrolls delivery I guess you would call it but I would

say the bottom line is not a number that suggests a rush for the Fed to hike rates. Why such a

muted response, maybe just need to clear the CPI hurdle on Wednesday but also our volumes

had collapsed over the previous two sessions so have to remember we are in peak August. With

the renewal of effort to get rid of Lisa Cook (whatever the outcome more fodder for the

independence story), growth data being revised up and less of a need for speedier hikes should

keep this recent dollar downdraft intact all things being equal.

So what I did in the end is add to euro longs (right here, inspiring ha!) but we did get the close

above the daily trendline, sold usdcad on the stark contrast in the numbers on either side of the

border and positioning is likely still short the Loonie, traded the yen around ok but still short and

whilst we had an ok weekly close price action still doesn’t suggest local real money is using the

usdjpy rallies to help the coordinated part of the intervention story, using the bottom of the cloud

as next risk point. Eurhuf had a blowout top on the weak (but anticipated) inflation print,

encouraging but still feels like less of an alpha story at this point so trimming back towards 360

makes sense. I still don’t mind holding some chf shorts on the other side here also.

Hardly an explosive response to the US data in the euro, with vols languishing maybe the

market is awash with gamma and whilst the euro funding story is still pretty well subscribed to

more pain in terms of level is required to shift that narrative properly. We did get a close above

the daily trendline off the highs but failed to extend the initial push on the data itself, I have

added to longs and will await CPI to see if we can get a deeper positioning unwind in the period

between now and Jackson Hole at the end of the month. I don’t want to turn much into a project

…