EM FX Daily Report - 10th August 2026. Mon Aug 10 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Matt Pheasant AC

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch

EM FX

RUB

Sales & Trading

JPMORGAN

10 August 2026

We did see a new high in usd/rub on Friday with the pair trading as high as 82.50. Not too much

to add to recent updates other than to say the price action argues for higher and actions taken by

the MOF seem to imply that a weaker ruble would be more than welcomed by the authorities.

Staying with the long usd exposure.

ZAR

Friday’s NFP print was weaker than expected, but USD softness began earlier in the session.

ZAR led gains across EMFX as systematic accounts emerged as sizeable buyers of the

currency. The move was further supported by strong metals performance—particularly gold—

which, alongside the soft US data, briefly pushed USDZAR down to 16.10. While the latest

NFP release supports some USD selling—especially versus higher-carry currencies—I’m

reluctant to sell USDZAR at these levels. I expect the pair to struggle to break below 16.00,

particularly in the wake of the most recent SARB meeting. Additionally, the US–Iran conflict

looks far from resolved, with tensions rising again, so I prefer to stay on the sidelines in ZAR

for now.

TRY

USDTRY continues to follow the current depreciation path, trading around state bank offers

around 47.7225 this morning. Price action remains orderly after better client selling last week,

helped by improved risk sentiment and the softer than expected July CPI print. We remain long

TRY. The July inflation number supports the disinflation story, and we still see little reason to

expect a near term change in the FX framework. Real appreciation remains an important part of

the policy mix.

The external backdrop has generally improved, but we need to acknowledge that oil is still not

out of the way as a risk. While oil prices moved lower last week in expectation of a possible

agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, there is still plenty of room for more headline driven

moves. For TRY, a sustained move lower in oil would clearly help the inflation and current

account outlook, while a renewed rise would quickly bring the risk of a faster depreciation pace

back into focus.…