Kirin Q2: Expensive M&A and a low quality beat

Research evidence excerpt

10 August 2026

Price Target Upgrade

Euan McLeish

APAC Food & Beverages

Kirin Holdings Co Ltd

Hao Wang, CFA

Rating

Market-Perform

Mufei Gao

Price Target

2503.JP

3,000.00 JPY (2,900.00 OLD)

Makoto Morozumi

Kirin Q2: Expensive M&A and a low quality beat

Following Kirin’s Q2 beat and guidance raise reported on Friday, we have increased our 2026

EPS estimate by 4% mainly reflecting the benefit from termination of Rocatinlimab R&D

investment. At 31x P/E, the Jamieson’s supplements acquisition looks expensive and, given

the lack of synergy, we remain unconvinced by the company’s M&A strategy.

Close Date

7 Aug 2026

2503.JP Close Price (JPY)

3,038.00

Price Target (JPY)

3,000.00

Upside/(Downside)

The acquisition of Jamieson clearly gives Kirin the North American Health toehold that

management has long desired, but the limited US exposure (18% of revenues), coupled

with the fragmentation of that market, suggest that this is likely just the start of the next

M&A wave if Kirin are to create a scale business. Given the lack of operational overlap & cost

synergy potential, as well as the minimal presence of the Blackmores/FANCL brands in North

America, we expect elevated marketing investment to weigh on Health Science margins over

the coming years. In China, we do see some scope for synergy (18% of Jamieson sales) as

long as management are willing to swiftly integrate route to market with Blackmores.

(1)%

52-Week Range

3,161.00/2,036.50

JPL

2,643.59

FYE

Dec

Div Yield

2.5%

Market Cap (JPY) (B)

2,479.01

EV (JPY) (B)

3,473.23

Performance

YTD

1M

6M

12M

Absolute (%)

29.4

4.6

23.0

44.7

JPL (%)

19.8

0.1

6.0

36.7

Kirin Q2 beat expectations on the back of pharma R&D savings following the termination of

Relative (%)

9.6

4.4

17.0

Rocatinlimab development. Headline OP was up 35%, a 28%/30% beat vs Bern/Consensus Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.

but, excluding Kyowa Kirin, OP grew 2.6% and missed our est by 3.9%. While domestic

alcohol missed at revenue, as Kirin underperformed Asahi in the quarter, OP beat by 11%

Price Performance, 1YR

with deferred marketing spend driving ~250bps of margin expansion. Lion cc Revenue was

¥3400

3000

¥3200

…