Global Air Tech: War finally impacts traffic guides. Maintain Outperform on Amadeus and Market-Perform on Sabre

Research evidence excerpt

10 August 2026

Global Air Tech

Global Air Tech: War finally impacts traffic guides. Maintain

Outperform on Amadeus and Market-Perform on Sabre

Alex Irving, CFA

Antoine Madre

Specialist Sales

Kiran Shah, CFA

Air tech vendors are navigating through war-driven headwinds to air travel volumes. Airlines

are currently looking at c. 2% traffic growth in H2, which is still sub-normal: the result of

passenger hesitance and higher input costs (fuel). Meanwhile, no news on AI risks to GDS

volumes, which we continue to see as more for the 2030s, nor on bear points around AI risks

to Air IT — which we see as fundamentally misconstruing airlines’ attitudes to, and priorities

for, their technology infrastructure. Elsewhere, Amadeus won a large airline group for its

Altéa product: while its identity is unconfirmed, the clues, in our view, point to Lion Air, and we

reflect this in our numbers.

Capacity cuts weigh on 2026 traffic outlook. Airlines are doing what airlines always do

in response to higher inputs costs, and cutting capacity. Global seat capacity ex-China is

now scheduled to grow c. 2% in H2, and we would not be surprised to see further cuts to

Q4 schedules. Amadeus has reduced its volume forecasts as a result. Should fuel prices

remain elevated, we would expect traffic to remain weak into Q1 before hitting soft comps

as we lap the outbreak of war in 2027.

Has Amadeus been hunting lions? Amadeus reported a new customer win for Altéa at

Q2: a new >40m annual PB airline group, with migration expected for 2027. There are few

companies this could be. We view China as unaddressable, and Russia as untouchable.

Turkish (+ AJet) is too big. We would not describe other large airlines as a “Group”. One

stands out: Lion Air, with subsidiaries Thai Lion Air, Batik, Batik Malaysia, Wings Air and

Super Air Jet, likely had 50-60m PBs in 2025, and we understand its contract ends in

2027. Neither Amadeus nor current vendor Sabre (for whom it ranks #3 or #4 by PBs, near

Alaska) have confirmed or denied this. We include the change in our numbers for both from

Q4 2027, pending further clarity, and recognize this is merely an educated guess rather

than confirmed data.…