Novo Nordisk (UP): Too early to get more constructive?

Research evidence excerpt

10 August 2026

Justin Smith

European Biopharmaceuticals

Novo Nordisk A/S

Shan Mian

Rating

Underperform

Maximilian Brewster

Price Target

NOVOB.DC

Specialist Sales

203.00 DKK (200.00 OLD)

Christian Moore

Novo Nordisk (UP): Too early to get more constructive?

Our new ‘26-31e EPS are up to 15% < consensus (Bloomberg) as we continue to expect

worse GLP-1 injectable share losses and deflation (both in the US). Our bull-bear is still

negatively skewed, and the catalyst cupboard looks bare to us. We also don’t believe that

the 10x PE26e implied by our Price Target is extreme as it still implies premia to stocks with

deeper moats like Sanofi (O) on our global large cap pharma EV/sales regression analysis.

What’s changed? We raise our ‘26-31e group sales by 2-5% as we now introduce

forecasts for coramitug (depleter in phase 3 for ATTR-cardiomyopathy). Thus our ‘26-31e

Operating Profit has also mechanically increased by 2-5%. Meanwhile, our ‘26-31e EPS

have increased by 2-4%. Hence, our new EPS CAGR (26-31e ) is 3.7% (vs 3.4% previously),

which is 420bps < EU peers (on Bernstein estimates).

Why are our ‘26-31 EPSe up to 15% < consensus? (i) we expect worse US share losses

to LLY (O; Courtney Breen) in injectable GLP-1 obesity and diabetes; (ii) considering the LLY

marketing powerhouse, we still forecast Wegovy Pill to lose majority share in US oral obesity

to Foundayo by 2028E (iii) we also expect worse US GLP1 deflation to drive margin misses.

What’s the risk-reward? Our bull/bear implies +4% upside vs. -40% downside to ‘35e

EBIT (=DCF proxy). In the bull case, the approved portfolio provides all the upside and

assumes Novo delivers consensus Ozempic, Wegovy and Rybelsus and also Wegovy Pill

global peak sales of $12bn. In the pipeline, considering consensus’ downgrades we now

believe that Cagri-sema is no longer a source of upside risk.

Close Date

7 Aug 2026

NOVOB.DC Close Price (DKK)

305.10

Price Target (DKK)

203.00

Upside/(Downside)

(33)%

52-Week Range

409.95/224.25

EDME

1,638.96

FYE

Dec

Div Yield

3.8%

Market Cap (DKK) (B)

1,362.27

EV (DKK) (B)

1,457.42

Performance

YTD

1M

6M

Absolute (%)

(6.2)

(6.8)

3.2

12M

(1.2)

EDME (%)

11.5

2.9

6.5

21.3

Relative (%)

(17.7)

(9.7)

…