BASF: Framing the longer-term value creation opportunity

Research evidence excerpt

10 August 2026

James Hooper

European Chemicals

BASF SE

Sebastien Afoy

Rating

Outperform

Specialist Sales

James Brady

Price Target

BAS.GR

62.00 EUR (61.00 OLD)

BASF: Framing the longer-term value creation opportunity

BASF’s share price will likely continue to be volatile in the short-term, dependent on

developments in the Strait of Hormuz. But we feel comfortable buying the dips because we

believe the market is missing the longer-term potential for value creation at BASF. At the core

of our thesis lies two key tenets: 1) 2026 will not be peak Verbund profitability; and 2) the

Agricultural Solutions IPO will be a catalyst for value creation. If one believes either of these

two tenets, then BASF appears undervalued, and we believe the stock currently prices in no

growth (Exhibit 3). We reiterate our Outperform rating.

1) 2026 will not be peak Verbund profitability. We believe volumes will continue to grow,

and cost savings will more than offset negative, but improving, net pricing. We continue to

believe that the upstream chemicals market is in a structurally better position than pre-war

(see our Long View). And BASF’s integration advantage could become particularly important

if capacity cuts resume in Europe. Furthermore, BASF will also have fewer Zhanjiang start-up

costs, and can deliver the vast majority of its targeted c. €2.66bn Verbund fixed cost savings

through 2029 in headcount reduction alone.

2) the Agricultural Solutions IPO will be a catalyst for value creation. The IPO

is expected to take place in mid-2027 on the Frankfurt stock exchange. We consider

Agricultural Solutions BASF’s highest multiple business. Ag. Solutions is a true specialty

chemicals business, delivering R&D-led growth in a solid end-market, in our view. Ag.

Solutions has also performed better than peers this decade, particularly on volumes, while

maintaining solid margins. Historically these businesses have traded at c. 10x EBITDA

through the cycle so we therefore feel comfortable using this valuation in our SotP, with

possible upside from ongoing solid performance or any improvement in cyclical conditions

(2027 crop futures are above current contracts).…