Quick Take: BASF beats for 2Q26, upgrades FY26 EBITDA guidance but FCF disappoints

Research evidence excerpt

Quick Take: BASF beats for 2Q26, upgrades FY26 EBITDA guidance but FCF disappoints

15 July 2026

James Hooper

+44 20 7676 6995

European Chemicals james.hooper@bernsteinsg.com

BASF SE Sebastien Afoy

+44 207 762 1032

Rating sebastien.afoy@bernsteinsg.com

Outperform Specialist Sales

Price Target James Brady

+44 20 7762 5272

BAS.GR 61.00 EUR james.brady@bernsteinsg.com

Quick Take: BASF beats for 2Q26, upgrades FY26 EBITDA

guidance but FCF disappoints

BASF’s FY26 EBITDA guidance raise was met with a shrug by the market, with shares selling

Close Date 14 Jul 2026

off (-4% at time of writing) based on the unchanged FCF guidance, implying that higher raw

BAS.GR Close Price (EUR) 49.30

material costs are offsetting profitability upgrades. Although the lack of FCF raise is a touch

Price Target (EUR) 61.00

disappointing, this doesn’t change our positive view. We still consider BASF well positioned

Upside/(Downside) 24%

to manage the current macro environment, as shown by their higher volumes. We also believe

52-Week Range 55.05/41.48

that the gap between profitability and cash generation will reduce over time, with two main

EDME 1,594.78

reasons for FCF disappointment in 2Q26 specifically: pricing lags and the mandatory 5-year

FYE Dec

Ludwigshafen turnaround. And slightly disappointing cash generation in Q2 should not obscure

Div Yield 4.6%

catalysts related to the upcoming separation of Agricultural Solutions (see report Chemicals:

Market Cap (EUR) (M) 43,238

Specialty or Commodity, with potentially tough times in between).

EV (EUR) (M) 64,917

2Q a strong beat, FY26 EBITDA guidance raised in line with expectations, but no FCF Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M

raise. 2Q’s EBITDA beat (Exhibit 1), was driven by with positive prices (+11%) and volumes Absolute (%) 9.0 (1.3) 4.9 12.0

(+7%).