Chemicals 2Q26 Preview: A tactical long and a couple of prints to be managed

Research evidence excerpt

Chemicals 2Q26 Preview: A tactical long and a couple of prints to be managed

17 July 2026

Estimate Change

Chemicals

Chemicals 2Q26 Preview: A tactical long and a couple of prints to

be managed

We expect a mostly solid set of 2Q26 results from our coverage, with few fireworks after James Hooper

+44 20 7676 6995 BASF pre-announced. We’re only expecting further guidance raises from the US industrial

james.hooper@bernsteinsg.com gases, and even those by less than 1% on average. Our highest conviction tactical call is

long Akzo Nobel, where we think consensus’ forecast of a guidance cut is too bearish, and

Sebastien Afoy we have asterisks on the prints of Air Liquide, where we believe fundamentals are fine but

+44 207 762 1032

sebastien.afoy@bernsteinsg.com comparable growth expectations a little bullish, and Solvay, where a miss could be severely

punished.

Specialist Sales

Our highest conviction tactical call is long Akzo Nobel. While we are more in-line for

James Brady Akzo’s 2Q26’s EBITDA, our various consensus sources are all telling us that Akzo will cut

+44 20 7762 5272

james.brady@bernsteinsg.com their FY26 EBITDA guidance of €1.47bn+ (Company €1,420m, Bloomberg €1,424m,

Visible Alpha €1,423m). We believe a guidance cut at 2Q26 is highly unlikely and model

Steve Song 2026 EBITDA of €1.48bn. We see limited evidence of sufficient volume declines to change

+1 917 344 8401 the Company’s guidance views. And on the cost side, under our forecasts of their raw

steve.song@bernsteinsg.com

material basket (Exhibit 6), only LSD +ve pricing across 2026 is required for the neutral raw

material spread assumed by guidance. Higher pricing and resilient volumes could even be

a source of 3Q upside to guidance, if Akzo follow their playbook from 1Q results. While we