European Banks - Taking Stock; Positioning Intelligence; Equity Strategy; US jobs

Research evidence excerpt

Gigi Sparling - Specialist Sales - European Financials AC (44-20) 7134-0355

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Europe Specialist Sales

JPMORGAN

10 August 2026

European Banks - Taking Stock; Positioning Intelligence; Equity Strategy;

US jobs

Gigi Sparling

4 Key Highlights Today:

1. European Banks: Taking stock.

2. Positioning Intelligence: The latest from John Schlegel on our Positioning Intelligence team.

3. Equity Strategy - Stay bullish on equities; Cyclicals are rallying past Low Vol stocks again.

4. US: School’s out for summer.

Use the links below to jump straight to each section:

The Detailed Highlights

Post results, Newswires & Away from Us

Global Financials wrap, Trading Recap and Colour

Global Financials Research Links

Global Macro Research Links

Save the Date: J.P. Morgan Events

J.P. Morgan Financials Contacts

The Detailed Highlights

European Banks: Taking stock. Whilst it’s still too early for European insurers given the bulk of the reporting was just last

week, for European banks the sector has seen 1.3% consensus eps upgrades for 2026 and 1.4% for 2027 since the start of July i.e.

over Q2 reporting season. That puts YTD consensus upgrades at 5.5% for 2026, 7.4% for 2027 and 11.5% for 2028 for the sector.

Since the start of July on a 2026 basis UBS has seen the biggest consensus eps upgrades at 5% for FY26 and then Julius Baer,

BIRG, ING have all seen 4% consensus upgrades. For FY27 Bankinter has seen 4% consensus eps upgrades and Bawag, Erste,

SEB, Baer, UBS, Caixa and BBVA have all seen 3%. On a 2027 basis since the start of July SEB, Stan and Cred Ag have seen the

biggest reratings followed closely by Bankinter and Caixa and Barclays have not re rated at all compared to a 6.5% rerating for

the sector as a whole. In terms of stock moves we disagree wth over the period - Marta thinks lofty expectations on Caixa’s NII

have come down meaningfully setting the stock up nicely for H2, we think the actions on costs on Barclays was a sensible one in

a good quarter and Marta sits 8% below consensus on Sabadell for 2027-28.

Positioning Intelligence: The latest from John Schlegel on our Positioning Intelligence team. HF performance is +0.8% MTD

…