Sales & Trading US Macro Credit Trading

Research evidence excerpt

Sales & Trading

US Macro Credit Trading

10 August 2026

JPMORGAN

FOR INSTITUTIONAL & PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – This material is from a Sales and Trading department and is not a product of the Research Department.

Big Picture:

Last week started with a resounding rally in credit. Investors sentiment had turned bullish on the back of treasury yields bouncing

back off the highs and de-escalatory headlines from Iran. By mid-last week, a new range had been defined as the rally stalled out.

A mix of profit-taking and fresh hedges being put on balanced the flows around 51 bps in IG and $108 in HY.

Just as linear products settled into a range, second order products started to reprice. In options, implied volatility is closing the

week near the lowest levels of the year, with skew and calendars creeping back higher. In off-TRs and curves, 5x10s inched back

above 40 bps, and the tech-heavy S46 outperformed older series in both IG and HY. And finally, the year-long rally in mezzanine

tranches gained steam, with HY jnr/snr mezz trading near their tightest absolute and relative levels of the year.

Volumes remain heavy in macro and more broadly in credit, despite the often-lighter August seasonal, and we see few signs that

will change. For this coming week, we expect the tone to be driven by inflation data, especially given last Friday’s soft payrolls

report and still topical treasury yields.

Upcoming Week Calendar Events: CPI (08/12), PPI (08/13), Jobless Claims (08/13), U. of Mich. Sentiment (08/14)

Trader Commentaries

Mehul Manian (CDX on-the-run index)

Sideways price action for index which lagged the squeeze in equities at the start of the week, but o/p cash ETFs within the

credit world. The themes were bigger in compression/decompression moves in the week with HFs adding large

decompression positions, with decomp only realizing when HY46v3 debuted mid-week. Otherwise, RM and international

macro flows were better to buy HY risk / buy IG protection which, alongside the move lower in oil/rates in the week, added to

the days of compression in the mix. At the start of the week, index looked rich to singles, so arb lists were able to print with

…