INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

AUGUST 10, 2026

20 SECONDS: Cyclical and Secular at nice intersection. Let’s GO(LD)! Tech on the way up. Update on

Memory. Catalysts & Positioning.

Markets fairly subdued at the start to the week. Crude strengthens this am amid latest setback in

reopening talks - Iran issued hardline demands vs Trump “low-keying it”. Once again, military

realities shape the view.

Cyclical and Secular considerations are at a nice intersection

The big picture is supportive: 1) The Global Composite PMI is consistent with above-potential

global GDP growth and JPM Econ made a material upgrade to 2H26 global growth forecasts; 2)

Q2 earnings are tracking strong and JPM just raised the 2026 S&P 500 to 8,000 (7,800 prev); 3)

Schlegel’s TPM remains attractive (after a buy signal triggered about 2 weeks ago).

Secular Themes were at the top of the launchpad last week (incl. Critical Minerals, Precious

Metals, Miners, Defence, Space, Quantum, Cyber etc.) and there are still interesting drawdowns to

buy across Security and Resilience Initiatives and Strategic Assets.

We entered July long SXPP and Gold. We think the US-Japan joint JPY intervention has

reinforced the case on XAU. After all, does not it all mean that reserve managers can’t sell $ in

unlimited quantities?

The AI/MOMO correction is over but on the way up, we expect higher participation and thematic

dispersion in Tech. This means pockets of Software (Alternative AM too?) on commoditization of

LLMs + Hyperscalers on a dramatically improved CAPEX/ROI narrative should have more upside

too.

Memory embodies the dispersion point even if fundamentals still look solid. JPM Jay Kwon just

raised Memory TAM for 26-28 by 4-8% and expects S/D shortage to further tighten in 27. Memory

demand broadening out from GPU to CPU remains a key source of potential upside surprises.

Key catalysts incl. US CPI, PPI, Retail Sales; UK GDP; Tencent & AMAT earnings.