ADNOC GAS: Q2 First Take: Q2 in-line, Habshan back to 85%, RGD phase III/III FID, 2030 EBITDA target lifted to +60% vs 2023 level

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

CEEMEA Equity Research

10 August 2026

ADNOC GAS

Q2 First Take: Q2 in-line, Habshan back to 85%, RGD

phase II/III FID, 2030 EBITDA target lifted to +60% vs

2023 level

Overweight

ADNOCGAS.AD, ADNOCGAS UH

Price (07 Aug 26):Dh3.40

Price Target (Dec-27):Dh4.15

Our Take: AG reported Q2 net income of USD 665m, 1% above JPMest of USD

656m, 5% above the company-compiled consensus of USD 632m and ahead of the

USD 400-600m range given at the Q2 results. The beat was largely driven by a

strong performance in the Domestic business where pricing was better than

expected. AG guided to expect Q3 net income of USD 600-800m based on the

assumption that maritime routes through the SOH continue to be disrupted.

Moreover, AG maintained guidance for the 2026 year of USD 3.5-4bn assuming

transit through the SOH and prices normalize in Q4. Importantly, AG also

commented that the Habshan gas plant was back running at 85% with repairs

running ahead of schedule with full capacity expected to be restored by Q2 27. AG

also announced FID on phases II/III of the Rich Gas Development project (RGD

cost USD 8.2bn) and consequently raised its longer-term EBITDA guidance to

+60% by 2030 vs 2023 compared with the previous guidance of >40% by 2029 vs

2023. The new guidance is based on +45% volume growth, mid-teen project

returns and oil at USD 70/bbl with further potential upside should UAE production

be lifted above 5Mbbls/d and if the Bab gas project is approved. If we look at the

60% target, it implies +USD 3.5bn of EBITDA growth by 2030 vs 2025 (oil was

at ~ USD 70/bbl in 2025) on the back of USD 21.8bn of growth capex which

implies an EBITDA return of ~16%, which looks a little skinny unless tax is low

and hence the guidance looks conservative, particularly given the potential for

further volumes growth/ projects. AG offers a progressive dividend (+5% pa),

yielding 5.3% for 2026 and is set to witness strong EBITDA growth over the next

5yrs underpinned by favourable contracts from its parent ADNOC. The balance

sheet is also strong with USD 1.5bn of net cash and 70% of sales volumes have no

SOH exposure giving it an attractive mix of growth and defensive characteristics.

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