Evolent Health: 2Q26 Adj. EBITDA Beat With 2027 Top-Line Commentary Ahead of Expectations; Medicaid Directionally Consistent With Industry

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

06 August 2026

Evolent Health

2Q26 Adj. EBITDA Beat With 2027 Top-Line

Commentary Ahead of Expectations; Medicaid

Directionally Consistent With Industry

Overweight

EVH, EVH US

Price (05 Aug 26):$3.08

Managed Care and Facilities

Evolent reported an adj. EBITDA beat in 2Q, while slightly increasing 2026 adj.

EBITDA guidance at the midpoint and providing preliminary 2027 growth

commentary with >25% revenue growth, ahead of expectations and underpinned

by recent wins (notably a $300M Performance Suite agreement announced today).

While there were some 2Q moving parts (notably the Performance Suite 2Q

PMPM step-up due to MA mix-shift), MER was in line with our expectations, with

SG&A improvement (we assume from operating leverage and AI improvements)

contributing to the adj. EBITDA beat. The near-term implementation of both the

Highmark and Aetna contracts continues to progress in line with management’s

expectations and will create an idiosyncratic impact on MER, but EVH has made

the case for improvement from the ~103% MER for its new cohort in 2026, which

should be an adj. EBITDA tailwind in 2027/2028. Medicaid and client enrollment

declines represent a headwind to 2027 that EVH expects to grow through. On

Medicaid, we note that it reflects ~33% of revenue in 2Q26 (down vs historical mix

due to EVH’s Medicare growth), with Medicaid Expansion representing ~20% of

Medicaid enrollment in our discussions, meaning that work requirements

(staggered over several years), we estimate translate into a -LSD% headwind at

most across several years. We see the lower 2H ramp as achievable, as trends have

improved throughout the first half of 2026, and we will look for 2H progression to

shift the outlook for the $15M-$30M in adj. EBITDA improvement into 2027.

2027 commentary was positive on revenue growth, with adj. EBITDA

growth commentary slightly more muted. EVH noted that, based on

contracts in place and scheduled launches, it expects revenue to grow >25% y/y

in 2027, implying revenue in the range of $3.3B-$3.4B vs 2027 JPMe/

consensus of $2.7B/$2.9B. We view this as notable given that next year will see

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