TRADING NFP – AUGUST 2026

Research evidence excerpt

TRADING NFP – AUGUST 2026

JPM US MARKET INTELLIGENCE

US MKT INTEL’S NFP SCENARIO ANALYSIS

Feroli’s full NFP preview is here. He sees 75k jobs being added, versus the Street’s

estimate of 80k and 57k jobs in the prior print. For the unemployment rate (U.3) he sees

4.3% vs. 4.2% prior. For Average Hourly Earnings, he sees +0.2% MoM and +3.5% YoY.

The following scenario analysis is NOT A PRODUCT OF JPM RESEARCH, this is a trading desk view from JPM US

Market Intelligence.

[10%] NFP prints above 150k. SPX loses 50bp – 1.75%

[25%] NFP prints between 100k –150k. SPX loses 50bp to gains 25bp

[30%] NFP prints between 60k – 100k. SPX loses 25bp to gains 50bp

[25%] NFP prints between 20k – 60k. SPX gains 25bp – 75bp

[10%] NFP prints below 20k. SPX loses 1.25% to gains 50bp

WHAT ARE OPTIONS PRICING? For options expiring on August 7, 2026, using

data from August 6, show a 0.7% implied move.

US MKT INTEL ON NFP – With yields and inflation still the key risks for stocks, we

expect Friday’s NFP to trade as a “good news is bad news” print: a strong jobs

number would reinforce higher-for-longer pricing and put upward pressure on rates.

After the latest de-escalation headlines, the 2Y has eased from a recent high near

4.35% to ~4.24% (midday Aug 6, 2026). An outsized hawkish surprise in NFP (e.g.,

>200k) could add upside pressure in yields, weighing on rate-sensitive baskets.

Conversely, Feroli flags technical effects such unwinding of World Cup-related hiring

and a rebound in labor force participation could skew July toward a softer payroll

print and a higher U-3 unemployment rate. If that comes to fruition, we expect

equities to respond positively to a moderate NFP miss, as yields ease and policy

expectations shift modestly dovish.

o US MKT INTEL VIEW – Tactically Bullish with near-term bond vol / yields

and a potential resumption of the AI unwind being the biggest risks. The

macro picture is one of resilience with the Consumer and AI capex continuing

NOT A PRODUCT OF RESEARCH