Czech Economics: CNB Shifts from Tightening to a Wait-and-See Stance but Retains Its Hawkish Tone

Research evidence excerpt

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06 Aug 2026 12:55:18 ET │ 11 pages

Czech Economics

CNB Shifts from Tightening to a Wait-and-See Stance but Retains Its

Hawkish Tone

CITI'S TAKE

At today’s meeting, the CNB unanimously kept its policy rate unchanged at

3.75%, in line with Citi’s forecast and market expectations, shifting to a

wait-and-see stance after its June hike. However, this does not mark a

dovish turn, as the central bank continues to maintain a hawkish tone. The

CNB’s August forecast brought its baseline closer to Citi’s outlook, which

implies an extended period of rate stability. That said, one additional rate

hike cannot be ruled out if domestic inflationary pressures—particularly in

services and housing—fail to ease, or if wage and credit growth accelerate

further. Today’s decision and accompanying communication confirmed that

the CNB views the June hike as a recalibration of monetary policy

restrictiveness rather than the start of a sustained tightening cycle.

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Martin Motl AC