2Q26 EBITDA Misses, Cash Flow Beats

Research evidence excerpt

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M

Update

August 6, 2026 05:30 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Erdemir | Europe

Alain Gabriel, CFA

Equity Analyst

2Q26 EBITDA Misses, Cash

Flow Beats

Adahna Ekoku

Equity Analyst

Ferdinand Huber

Research Associate

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Erdemir (EREGL.IS, EREGL TI)

Unchanged

In-line

Largely unchanged

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Key Takeaways

Operating EBITDA/t in line with consensus, 5% below MSe; non-operating items

drove the EBITDA miss.

EEMEA - Metals & Mining | Turkey

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 5, 2026)

52-Week Range

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)*

EV, curr (mn)*

Underweight

In-Line

TL 26.00

TL 41.98

TL 45.10- 23.15

US$6,178

US$1,006

US$8,103

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

FCFE beat was driven by lower capex, supporting a lower Net Debt vs our

forecasts.

Pull-back in Turkish HRC prices and spreads introduces downside risk to Q3

EBITDA estimates.

Q2 Operating EBITDA/t margin in-line with consensus, 5% below MSe. Reported

EBITDA misses on non-operating items. Erdemir reported an EBITDA/t of US$76/t

for the period, in-line with Visible Alpha consensus (-5% below MSe) with shipments

~2% ahead of market expectations and 2% below MSe. After incorporating nonoperating items and provisions, the company's reported EBITDA came in at US

$144mn - 9% below Consensus and 17% below MSe. Below the EBITDA line, the

depreciation charge was ~US$9mn higher than MSe/Consensus, widening the loss at

the Operating Income level. That said, tax expense was significantly positive given

the change in the corporate income tax rate from 25% to 12.5%, which explains some

reversals in taxation charges, underpinning the significant beat at the Net Income

line (see Exhibit 1 ).

Strong FCF on lower capex drives Net Debt beat. 2Q free cash flow to equity

(FCFE) came in at US$2mn (vs. MSe -US$77mn), supported by lower capex (US

$47mn vs MSe US$149mn). We expect the capex run-rate to increase in H2 to reach

full-year company guidance.…