European Steel: Q2‘26 preview – EBITDA acceleration from steel pricing; volume upside from TRQs is a key driver

Research evidence excerpt

European Steel: Q2‘26 preview – EBITDA acceleration from steel pricing; volume upside from TRQs is a key driver

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10 Jul 2026 13:00:00 ET │ 40 pages

European Steel

Q2’26 preview – EBITDA acceleration from steel pricing; volume upside

from TRQs is a key driver

Ephrem Ravi AC

CITI'S TAKE +44-20-7986-2462

European steel earnings will kick off on 22nd July with SSAB reporting its ephrem.ravi@citi.com

Q2’26 results. The results overall are likely to deliver q/q increase with our AC Krishan M Agarwal

expectations set for 16% higher EBITDA at $146/t. We see the small increase

in steel shipments together with higher prices flowing through the P&L as +44-020-7986-4092

key drivers for higher earnings in the quarter. The earnings narrative for the krishan.agarwal@citi.com

carbon and stainless steel is likely to stay supported going into the year end, Ijeoma Ihuegbu

albeit the summer seasonality in Q3’26. Implementation of TRQs from 1st +44-207-986-3914

July 2026 is a key driver for improved S/D balance in favor of domestic mills

and we could see HRC price increase in the range of €30-50/t for 2H’26. We ijeoma.ihuegbu@citi.com

also expect better evolution of cash flow for the sector with debt reduction

likely to support solid balance sheets, cash returns and share buybacks.

Steel price increase to drive higher EBITDA for European steel — European HRC

and stainless prices both have increased in Q1’26 and will reflect in the Q2’26 P&L

with the lag. We see the carbon steel ASPs rising by $30/t q/q offsetting the higher

raw material and energy costs. Our expectations for sector EBITDA increase by $21/t

reflects the benefits from positive operating leverage from improving capacity

utilization for domestic European operations. The EBITDA increase for stainless