Fluence Energy: F3Q Miss and FY26 Guidance Lowered, BTM Data Center Win and Record Backlog

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

06 August 2026

Fluence Energy

F3Q Miss and FY26 Guidance Lowered, BTM Data

Center Win and Record Backlog

FLNC reported a significant F3Q miss and lowered FY26 guidance owing to

manufacturing ramp challenges at two contract manufacturing facilities, which we

believe are timing related and not structural. PF gross margin and EBITDA came

in well below both our estimates and consensus, driven by the lack of revenue scale,

costs tied to new product deployment, and an upfront charge on a long-term battery

cell supply agreement. Encouragingly, order intake reached a record level, backlog

hit an all-time high, and the company secured meaningful data center business,

including its first behind-the-meter order and hyperscaler awards totaling roughly

$850mm through July. With this note, we are introducing FY28 estimates and

establishing a Dec 2027 price target of $17, unchanged from our Dec 2026 target.

Maintain Neutral.

F3Q miss. FLNC reported F3Q PF gross margin (JPMe: 13.4%/Street:12.3%)

and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $29mm (JPMe: $33mm gain/Street: $14mm

gain) on revenue of $650mm, which was ~$90mm below internal expectations

(JPMe: $745mm, Street: $806mm). The revenue shortfall was driven by two

facilities: the Houston enclosure facility (delayed ~one quarter due to

construction and automation issues, now in limited production, expected at full

production in F1Q27) and a new Chinese facility where initial Smartstack

production did not meet quality standards (now resolved and fully ramped).

Management cited three drivers of margin compression: (1) lost margin on the

$90mm revenue shortfall, (2)~$15mm of costs associated with new product

rollout and production delays, and (3) ~$15mm of upfront cost related to a

planned long-term international battery cell supply agreement.

Data center traction accelerating. Order intake was ~$1.44bn in F3Q, with

FLNC securing $850mm of data center business through July. Included is its

first large BTM order of $300mm signed with a data center developer and ~

$550mm of awards from a hyperscaler that is expected to convert to signed

orders in coming months.…