2Q26 First Take: EBITDA & Bottom-line Beat; Downstream Offset Weaker Upstream

Research evidence excerpt

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M

Update

August 6, 2026 06:37 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Orlen SA | Europe

Ricardo Rezende, CFA

Equity Analyst

2Q26 First Take: EBITDA &

Bottom-line Beat; Downstream

Offset Weaker Upstream

Sylvia C Richards

Research Associate

Giulia Faro

Research Associate

Orlen SA (PKN.WA, PKN PW)

EEMEA - Oil & Gas | Poland

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Unchanged

Modest upside

Largely unchanged

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Stock Rating

Industry View

Shr price, close (Aug 5, 2026)

Price target

52-Week Range

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

Underweight

No Rating

PLN 150.20

PLN 140.00

PLN 156.50- 76.54

PLN 174,373

Key Takeaways

2Q26 adj. EBITDA beat MSe/consensus by +7%/+2% and net income by +21%/

+23%, driven by good performance across the board ex-upstream.

Upstream & supply missed sharply: production reached 196kboed, but EBITDA

fell -33% below MSe on lower realised prices and higher supply costs.

Downstream EBITDA beat MSe by +42% supported by historical inventory layers,

despite refining margins of $14.5/bbl vs $18.8/bbl MSe; Petchems were solid.

Consumer & products EBITDA beat MSe by +26% as retail fuel volumes ran +25%

above forecasts, with a similarly strong performance in energy (+185 vs MSe)...

… as distribution outperformance offset 23% lower production; outsized beat to

net income was driven by lower finance costs and income tax.

Bottom-line: slightly positive. Orlen posted a mixed set of results for 2Q26 with

revenues weaker but adj. EBITDA +7%/+2% ahead of MSe and Visible Alpha

consensus; net income was a solid beat landing +21%/+23% ahead of MSe/cons.

Weak performance in upstream & supply was offset at EBITDA level by strong

results for the rest of the group in downstream, consumer & products, and energy.

Though upstream production was in-line at 196kboed, adj. EBITDA fell short of our

estimates by -33% on poor performance in upstream (PLN4,286mn vs MSe of

PLN5,139mn) driven by lower realised prices, and a negative contribution from

…