Cracking On; Tupras & MOL to OW

Research evidence excerpt

Cracking On; Tupras & MOL to OW

Idea

August 3, 2026 05:05 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MCEEMEA Refiners | Europe Ricardo Rezende, CFA

Equity Analyst

Cracking On; Tupras & MOL to Ricardo.Rezende@morganstanley.comSylvia C Richards +44 20 7677-9886

Research Associate

Sylvia.Richards@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-3354

OW Giulia Faro

Giulia.Faro@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-7581

Refining margins have surged again following a brief period of

EEMEA - Oil & Gas

normalization, with stocks in tow. Geopolitical disruptions have Europe

multiplied, fundamentals are tightening and crack spreads are Industry View No Rating

reaching ATHs. The path from here looks increasingly uncertain; What’s Changed

Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS

don't expect a smooth normalisation. We upgrade Tupras & (TUPRS.IS) From To

MOL to OW. Rating Equal-weight Overweight

Price Target TL 270.00 TL 346.00

Key Takeaways MOLNyrt (MOLB.BU)Magyar Olajes Gazipari From To

Rating Equal-weight Overweight

Refining cracks should remain structurally elevated as lost throughput,

Price Target HUF 4,504.00 HUF 5,350.00

constrained product exports and depleted middle-distillate stocks tighten

balances. Orlen SA (PKN.WA) From To

Price Target PLN 99.00 PLN 140.00

Crude rerouting cannot fully offset refinery outages: product supply is less

HELLENiQ ENERGY Holdings

replaceable, leaving diesel cracks most exposed. SA (HEPr.AT) From To

Price Target €9.00 €13.50

Crack margin normalisation now looks two-stage: peak margins should fade into

2027, then settle only gradually toward a higher mid-cycle refining margin.

Summary of EPS changes

Product demand growth of c.2.5mb/d versus <1.5mb/d of net capacity additions

implies tighter utilisation and limited spare refining capacity in the long-term.