Casella Waste Systems: 2Q26 Earnings & Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

07 August 2026

Casella Waste Systems

Neutral

CWST, CWST US

Price (07 Aug 26):$89.41

2Q26 Earnings & Model Update

▼Price Target (Dec-26):$105.00

Prior (Dec-26):$110.00

CWST (N) reported adj. EBITDA roughly in-line vs. the Street’s ~$123MM,

while revenue came in ~2% above consensus, but EBITDA margin missed by

~40bps (management called out ~40bps of fuel-related headwind). The company

reported adj. EPS of $0.40 vs. consensus at $0.29. Total net sales increased

approximately 17% YoY to $544MM, ~2% above the Street’s $532MM. This

YoY growth was driven by continued strength in solid waste pricing, including a 4.7%

increase in disposal pricing and 4.5% pricing growth for municipal solid waste and

construction & demolition at landfills. As CWST implemented these price increases,

landfill volumes also rose YoY, supported by both higher third-party sales and

internalization efforts. Meanwhile, fuel prices climbed rapidly this year and stayed

elevated through 2Q; the company’s floating fuel recovery fees helped offset the

higher costs, but created a ~40bps headwind to adjusted EBITDA

margins. Management updated its FY26 guidance, including total revenue now

between $2.09-2.11B (vs. prior $1.97-1.99B and consensus $2.07B), up ~14%

YoY. Adj. EBITDA is unchanged and still expected to be between $473-483MM (vs.

consensus $480MM), which implies a margin of ~22.8% at mp (vs. consensus

~23.2%) representing a ~20bps decrease YoY. The FY26 guidance implies 2H net

sales up ~15% YoY to $1.10B (vs. consensus $1.08B) at a margin of 23.4% (vs.

consensus 24%).

Adjusting estimates; lowering Dec 26 PT to $105. We are now modeling FY26 and

FY27 EBITDA of $477MM and $530MM at 22.8% and 23.6% margins, respectively.

We are lowering our Dec 26 PT to $105 using ~15x FY1 EV/EBITDA, a turn

above the current valuation that we find reasonable because of the potential for

strong margin leverage next year (after three years of deleverage) from cost

savings initiatives and the reversal of fuel-related headwinds. We rate CWST

Neutral. Below are key highlights from the earnings conference call.

Pricing execution and landfill volume strength drive 2Q growth.…