Vistance Networks: 2Q26 Review: Outlook Weighed by Deployment Delays and 2026 EBITDA Cut; Maintain Neutral

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

07 August 2026

Vistance Networks

2Q26 Review: Outlook Weighed by Deployment Delays

and 2026 EBITDA Cut; Maintain Neutral

Neutral

VISN, VISN US

Price (07 Aug 26):$10.94

Price Target (Dec-27):$15.00

Vistance’s 2Q26 was mixed with revenue modestly ahead of our estimate while

EBITDA came in light. The y/y revenue decline was not a surprise given

management had already flagged a difficult compare from elevated legacy license

revenue in 2Q25. That said, the revenue outlook for the remainder of the year was

weighed by specific customers pushing out deployments by one or two quarters as

they decide on their technology upgrade path. However, we still expect Aurora

Networks to achieve low-double-digit revenue growth for the year amid a

continued DOCSIS 4.0 ramp, with ESD shipments expected to increase over the

next couple of quarters. Furthermore, management attributed headline weakness

in orders to timing, with July seeing ~$200 mn of orders after the quarter’s end,

which implies backlog is likely still growing y/y. With regard to EBITDA, the 2Q

profit miss was driven by weaker license mix, memory-chip pricing, and stranded

costs, while the guide cut (reduced by $25 mn to $200–225 mn) was mainly the

same pressures extending into 2H, with the memory drag rising to $40 mn from $30

mn prior and Ruckus-related stranded costs now reflected in the outlook.

Management shared that there could be further downside risk to the revised

outlook, cautioning that results could fall to the low end of the range, or lower, if

memory pricing and supply conditions worsen. Lastly, management provided

further color on the state of its non-DOCSIS strategy around owned adjacencies in

PON, VBNG, and security/PKI, while noting that it is still working through the

go-forward strategy and will provide updates as that process develops, suggesting

that larger capital deployment is more likely after the non-DOCSIS roadmap is

better defined. Net-net, our outer year forecasts remain largely unchanged as we

see revenue as pushed out rather than lost, and we still anticipate a return to

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