Argentina: Latin America Economic Research

Research evidence excerpt

Diego W. Pereira (1-212) 834-4321

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Lucila Barbeito (54-11) 4348-7229

JPMorgan Chase Bank Sucursal Buenos Aires

Argentina

The Milei administration sent to Congress the bill to

reform the BCRA’s organic charter

The cash-basis current account posted a US$0.8bn

surplus in June, driving 1H26 surplus to US$2.9bn

Reserve accumulation resumed in July

High-frequency data suggests that July’s CPI is set to

print at 1.9%m/m (upside risk)

The Milei administration has formally submitted to Congress

a bill to reform the BCRA’s Organic Charter. As we noted in

our recent preview, the proposal is designed to end the persistent fiscal dominance that has characterized Argentina for

decades. In their presentation to Congress, current BCRA

authorities underscored that between 2003 and 2023 the central bank incurred cumulative equity losses equivalent to 85%

of GDP (roughly USD 553bn today). They attributed these

losses mainly to (i) transfers of resources to the Treasury

through money creation and reserve losses (64% of GDP) and

(ii) the sterilization costs (interest) associated with those

transfers (21% of GDP)—dynamics that also contributed to

currency controls and financial repression.

Beyond repealing Marcó del Pont’s reform, the bill seeks to

insulate the institution from the electoral cycle. It restores a

single legal mandate—preserving the value of the currency—

eliminates the BCRA’s ability to extend transitory advances,

bans the issuance of IOUs (Letras Intransferibles), and limits

profit transfers to those that are realized and liquid, subject to

a statement that they will be used exclusively to cancel public

debt. It also requires that the removal of any board member,

including the president, be approved by both Chambers with a

two-thirds majority. Debate has begun in Lower House commissions, with a vote expected within the next two weeks.

June external surplus eases

The cash-basis current account posted a US$0.8bn surplus in

June, down from US$1.9bn in April, bringing the 1H26 surplus to US$2.9bn (0.4% of GDP). The step-down from

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