Global Commodities: The Week in Commodities

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Global Markets Strategy

07 August 2026

Global Commodities

The Week in Commodities

This is a summary note that consolidates the latest views of our global commodity

strategists published over the week; to read detailed reports, refer to the hyperlinks.

It also contains hyperlinks to other related research/podcasts on the global

commodities market.

Global Commodities Podcast: Miraculous recovery

For the last few months, our focus has understandably been on oil and history’s largest

supply disruption. While we have spoken extensively about inventories and demand,

one other component played a role - the positive supply response outside of the Middle

East.

Global Commodities: Feeling ‘22-ish?

We now expect the Fed to hike rates in December (versus 3Q27 previously) and

September is clearly a risk if inflation heats up again soon. While the Fed backdrop

might look similar to 1999, the commodities market environment is more akin to

2022, risking that an unwind in supply-disruption premiums once again coincides

with stiffer financial conditions headwinds, driving a more depressive cooling across

the commodities sector over any upcoming hiking cycle.

Oil Markets Weekly: Miraculous recovery

Global Commodities Research

Natasha Kaneva

(1-212) 834-3175

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

Gregory C. Shearer

(44-20) 7134-8161

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Tracey Allen

(44-20) 7134-6732

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Otar Dgebuadze, CFA

(44-20) 3493-8246

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Ali A. Ibrahim

(44-20) 3493-6438

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Lyuba Savinova

Several factors explain why the largest supply shock on record produced only average

price outcomes. Inventory draws, which normally provide the most powerful source

of upward pressure, were much smaller than anticipated. At the same time, the loss of

demand proved far greater than expected, creating an equally strong offset. Whether

this reflects a world that has become far more energy efficient than previously

believed, or merely a temporary adjustment, remains an open question until more

complete data become available. China also surprised the market by cutting crude

…