EM Edge Data Watch: Trade in the crosshairs

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Global Economic Research

07 August 2026

EM Edge Data Watch

Trade in the crosshairs

Geopolitics spillover into energy trade flows with GCC at the center

Also MENAP defense pact, Nigeria loan and positive outlook for Armenia

Fuel importers see a spike, while non-fuel import demand holds up

Higher commodity prices buoy producers, while manufacturers hit tariff

headwinds

One of the key headwinds facing the global economy since the Middle East war started

in February has been a disruption to energy flows. Commodity markets have borne the

brunt, with supply interruptions in oil, gas, industrial inputs, and fertilizers pushing up

prices. Brent crude spiked to around $100/bbl in recent weeks and has since settled

near $80/bbl on optimism around a potential de-escalation that could allow more

traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Restrictions on navigation through the Red Sea

have added another layer of challenge for regional exporters. While the Middle East

has been the main theater of action, the re-routing of oil trade flows is also evident

across Latin America, Africa, and Asia; for example, Panama Canal traffic picked up

as an alternate transit route.

Geopolitics is also spilling into trade through the Black Sea, where drone and missile

attacks are disrupting both cargo ships and tankers for both Russia and Ukraine.

Unlike in 2022, the impact appears more contained, mainly affecting Ukrainian

commodity exports while other countries have diversified their import sources—

particularly for wheat. Kazakhstan has also been caught in the crosshairs following

attacks on tankers using the CPC infrastructure.

These shocks add to broader strains on the global trading system, with barriers and

tariffs being erected. The Trump administration has introduced new 10%-12.5%

tariffs under Section 301 on roughly 60 economies, citing weak enforcement of

forced-labor restrictions, and positioning them as a replacement for expiring Section

122 tariffs. The average U.S. tariff rate is now reported to be around 11.3%. While

several EM Edge economies fall within scope, Vietnam appears particularly exposed

given the U.S.…