Hindalco: Growth within sniffing distance

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research

08 August 2026

Hindalco

Overweight

HALC.NS, HNDL IN

Price (07 Aug 26):Rs1,059.60

Growth within sniffing distance

▲Price Target (Sep-27):Rs1,205.00

Prior (Sep-27):Rs1,190.00

Hindalco’s India business segment EBITDA came in 15% above JPMe, driven by

a beat in aluminum upstream (+17% vs. JPMe, much stronger realizations) while

aluminum downstream/copper segments were broadly in line. The India business

segment EBITDA of Rs86.1bn grew 73% YoY/30% QoQ. Hindalco’s growth

projects remain on track and the Ph 1 Aluminum smelter will be commissioned by

Dec-2027 (FY29 will likely see meaningful volumes). Captive coal mines will also

see ~1.5MT volumes in FY28, yielding cost savings. Hindalco is also 21% hedged

in FY28 at an LME Aluminum price of $3,160/t which is a positive as prices may

see a downward trajectory once Indonesian and ME supply ramps up.

Consolidated net debt to EBITDA moved slightly higher QoQ to 1.95x from 1.83x

(led by Novelis). Management reiterated that FY27 will be capex heavy even in

India, hence consolidated ND/EBITDA should be stable in the coming quarters

and likely see a decline by 4QFY27 (as Novelis deleveraging happens). See our

earlier note post-Novelis results here. We update our Hindalco model post1QFY27 consolidated earnings and management commentary. Our PT moves up

slightly to Rs1,205.

India Materials & Logistics

Vibhav Zutshi, CFA AC

(91-22) 6157-3585

J.P. Morgan India Private Limited, J.P. Morgan

Tower, Santacruz(E), Mumbai - 400098, SEBI

Registration: INH000001873, (91-22) 6157-3000.

Key Changes (FYE Mar)

Prev

Cur Δ

Revenue - 27E (Rs mn) 3,323,0643,269,811 -1.6%

Revenue - 28E (Rs mn) 3,225,3263,238,188 0.4%

Adj. EPS - 27E (Rs)

121.44 124.70 2.7%

Adj. EPS - 28E (Rs)

101.96 104.37 2.4%

Adj. EBITDA - 27E (Rs mn) 471,857 473,531 0.4%

Adj. EBITDA - 28E (Rs mn) 417,932 421,430 0.8%

Style Exposure

Key call takeaways

Key projects are on track. The Aditya Aluminum smelter’s first phase

(181KT) is expected to be commissioned by Dec-27 followed by the next phase

(193KT) by Dec-28. Management highlighted that FY29 will start to see

meaningful volumes. The captive coal mines are on track (Chakla 1HFY27,

…