U.S. Interest Rate Forecast

Research evidence excerpt

Jay Barry AC (1-212) 834-4951

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Global Markets Strategy

JPMORGAN

07 August 2026

U.S. Interest Rate Forecast

Actual

1m ahead

3Q26

4Q26

1Q27

2Q27

7-Aug-26

7-Sep-26

30-Sep-26

31-Dec-26

31-Mar-27

30-Jun-27

Effective funds rate

3.63

3.64

3.65

3.90

SOFR

3.65

3.63

3.65

3.90

2-yr Treasury

4.20

4.25

4.30

3-yr Treasury

4.27

4.30

4.35

5-yr Treasury

4.36

4.35

4.45

7-yr Treasury

4.50

4.65

10-yr Treasury

4.66

4.75

4.80

4.85

20-yr Treasury

5.22

5.25

5.35

5.40

30-yr Treasury

5.21

5.20

5.35

5.40

Fed funds/2yr

57

56

60

40

2s/10s

45

55

2s/5s

16

15

20

15

5s/10s

30

40

35

40

5s/30s

85

90

95

10s/30s

55

45

55

Rates (%)

Spreads (bp)

Source: J.P. Morgan

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