Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan Stanley

M

Update

August 7, 2026 08:38 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. | North America

Bob Jian Huang

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG.N, AJG US)

What’s Changed

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG.N)

From

To

Price Target

$255.00

$270.00

Bull Case

$309.00

$324.00

Base Case

$255.00

$270.00

Bear Case

$173.00

$182.00

Updated Components

EPS

Bull Base Bear Scenarios

Risk Reward for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG.N) has been

updated

Insurance - Property & Casualty | United States of

America

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 6, 2026)

52-Week Range

Overweight

Attractive

$270.00

$251.74

$313.44-190.80

Fiscal Year Ending

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

EPS ($)**

Prior EPS ($)**

10.69

12.92

12.74

14.85

14.54

16.72

16.37

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Reason for change

We update our model to incorporate the latest 2Q26 results and management

commentary from the earnings call. We generally maintain our organic growth,

while slightly increasing adj. EBITDA margins based on guidance. Our 2026e/2027e

EPS change by ~1%/2%, to $12.92/$14.85. We adjust our PT to $270/shr, as we mark

our peer multiples to the market, and our PT implies a 12.9x 2027e EV/EBITDA

valuation.

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with

companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,

investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of

interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley

Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley

Research as only a single factor in making their investment

decision.