First Take 2Q26 Earnings: Demonstrating Stability

Research evidence excerpt

First Take 2Q26 Earnings: Demonstrating Stability

Update

July 30, 2026 09:13 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMArthur J. Gallagher & Co. | North America Bob Jian Huang

Equity Analyst

First Take 2Q26 Earnings: Bob.Huang@morganstanley.comSiddhant Shah +1 212 761-6136

Research Associate

Sid.Shah@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2603

Demonstrating Stability Daniel Lee, ACAS

Daniel.Lee4@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0219

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG.N, AJG US)

Unchanged In-line Largely unchanged

Insurance - Property & Casualty | United States of

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS America

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Stock Rating Overweight

Industry View Attractive

Price target $255.00

Stable results and guidance should calm investor nerves. Despite a challenging Shr price, close (Jul 30, 2026) $256.46

pricing environment, the company delivered solid organic growth. Both Brokerage Mkt cap, curr (mm) $66,654

52-Week Range $313.44-190.80

and Risk Management drove the beat, and the company issued even more optimistic

full-year guidance. In our view, steady margins also supported the result. Looking

ahead, growth durability will be key. We have reasonable visibility into 2H26, but

how growth shapes out into 2027 will be closely watched. Further, while the

company outperformed on organic growth, total revenue came in lighter than

expected. How M&A shapes out in the current environment will likely remain an

outstanding question for some time.

What We Liked

• Organic revenue: Total organic growth of 6% beat 5.6% consensus, driven

by Risk Management organic (12% vs. 10.7%).

• Guidance: 2026 organic growth guidance came in slightly above consensus