The Weekend Spread: What’s Resonating?

Research evidence excerpt

Rob O'Dwyer - Specialist Sales - US Financials AC

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

North America Specialist Sales

JPMORGAN

07 August 2026

The Weekend Spread: What’s Resonating?

Rob O’Dwyer

Key Themes this Week

Where is there upside in financials in 2H26?

Long TW: Is competition actually bullish?

Long NDAQ: Is the market too dismissive of the cash flow generation?

Long MSCI: Secular growth actually accelerating?

The easy call in Financials over the last six months was that fundamentals were improving, particularly those linked to a

more constructive regulatory backdrop and a recovery in capital markets activity. Earnings season did little to challenge

that view. Banks continue to benefit from stronger activity levels, alternative managers are finally seeing realizations

improve, life insurers remain supported by investment income and favorable mortality trends, and even some of the more

challenged corners of the sector (historically speaking, e.g. Trad Ams and Trust Banks) are seeing the benefits of a rising

tide. None of that will surprise regular readers of this note, which raises the obvious question: what's next?

Calling a top in the business cycle is well beyond my pay grade, so assuming economic conditions remain broadly supportive, the

more relevant question is where investors are still underestimating earnings power, durability, or optionality. Put more simply:

where can we still make money in 2H26?

The sub-sectors that interest me most are those that were hit hardest by AI-related fears earlier this year.In February,

amidst the panic around the Citrini report (remember that!?), I was broadly chastised for suggesting that some of the exchanges

and information services names had overreacted to those concerns. In fairness, the pushback was reasonable. When the

distribution of outcomes is wide and uncertain, prudent investors should place greater weight on the tails. I was probably too

dismissive of that risk.

That said, I think the last six months have reinforced the durability of many of these business models. The story is far

from fully written, but we can be increasingly confident that critical datasets, workflows, analytics, and market

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