Kirin Holdings (2503): 2Q results: Solid, but few surprises; full-year guidance looks conservative

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research

08 August 2026

Kirin Holdings (2503)

2Q results: Solid, but few surprises; full-year guidance

looks conservative

Neutral: 2Q FY2026 business profit was ¥78.3 billion, above our estimate of

¥63.6 billion (Bloomberg consensus estimate: ¥62.7 billion). However, Kyowa

Kirin (Underweight, covered by Seiji Wakao) contributed significantly to the

overshoot, with few surprises. Management raised FY2026 guidance as investors

had expected. Revised business profit guidance is ¥253 billion, below our estimate

of ¥266 billion, but we view this as a conservative level reflecting the risk of the

external environment changing.

2Q results: 2Q business profit was ¥14.7 billion above our estimate, but the

overshoot was just ¥3.2 billion excluding what Kyowa Kirin had already

announced. The main factor was the timing of marketing investment execution

at Kirin Brewery. With liquor taxes being revised in October, it plans to

strengthen marketing before and after (3Q and 4Q). Sales volume at Lion in

Australia was flat YoY (with the market at the same level).

FY2026 guidance: Management raised FY2026 business profit guidance by

¥18 billion to ¥253 billion (up slightly YoY). This guidance hike includes a ¥30

billion boost from R&D expense reduction due to the halted development of

rocatinlimab and a ¥8 billion decline from the sale of Four Roses. The company

also plans to offset the ¥10 billion increase in costs due to the Middle East

impact with price hikes and expense control, but guidance also reflects –¥4

billion in case the external environment changes unexpectedly, giving us a

somewhat conservative impression. We thus view the revised guidance as a

minimum target.

Neutral

2503.T, 2503 JP

Price (07 Aug 26):¥3,038

Price Target (Dec-26):¥2,800

Japan Equity Research

Food, Beverage, and Tobacco

Satoshi Fujiwara AC

(81-3) 6736-8652

Hideto Takahashi

(81-3) 6736-8638

JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.