Blackstone Secured Lending: Earnings Cover Slips Modestly as Mgmt Bridges to a Lower Dividend, Repayments and Wider Spreads Frame a More Constructive Outlook

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

07 August 2026

Blackstone Secured Lending

Earnings Cover Slips Modestly as Mgmt Bridges to

a Lower Dividend, Repayments and Wider Spreads

Frame a More Constructive Outlook

Overweight

BXSL, BXSL US

Price (06 Aug 26):$24.15

▲Price Target (Dec-27):$24.00

Prior (Dec-27):$23.00

BXSL reported 2Q26 NII/sh of $0.75 (down from $0.77 Q/Q), above JPMe’s

forecast of $0.70 as well as consensus of $0.66. NAV/sh declined to $25.53 from

$26.26 sequentially, below JPMe of $26.24. BXSL declared a $0.77/sh dividend

for 3Q26 (record date 9/30/26, payable on/about 10/23/26), above JPMe’s forecast

for $0.70.

Consumer Finance

Richard Shane AC

(1-415) 315-6701

Hong Zhang

We reiterate our OW rating and increase our Dec 2027 price target to $24

(from $23), reflecting an increase in our target multiple to 0.95x (from 0.90x). We

continue to see BXSL as well positioned to outperform peers in an environment

where incumbency could be particularly important (in the event of increased

strategic deals) and where private credit solutions take share from the public

market. BXSL has ample capital (and access to more) to deploy, a strong earnings

profile / NAV stability, and a relatively low non-accrual rate. We now model a

dividend reduction to $0.70/sh (from $0.77/sh) beginning in 4Q26, but we believe

this is largely expected by investors and is consistent with mgmt's comments for

several quarters about aligning the dividend with the longer-term earnings power

of the portfolio as lower base rates flow through. Previously we had modeled the

reduction in 3Q26. Our Dec 2027 price target implies a 9% annualized total return

through our investment horizon.

Model Impact:

We now model a $0.77/sh quarterly dividend through 3Q26, followed by

a reduction to $0.70/sh beginning in 4Q26. This equates to an annual

dividend of $3.01/sh in FY26 and $2.80/sh in FY27, with dividend coverage

by NII improving to 99% (from 95% prior) in FY26 and to 96% (from 90%

prior) in FY27. Previously, we had the reduction to $0.70 in 3Q26.

Our NII/sh estimates increase to $2.99 (from $2.80 previously) in FY26 and to

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