DomRep: Inflation slows, but core stays sticky

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Latin America Economic Research

07 August 2026

DomRep: Inflation slows, but core

stays sticky

DomRep’s July inflation printed slightly below expectations at 5.5%oya (JPM:

5.6%) down from 5.7% in June. The monthly print slowed to 0.2%m/m from 0.5%

in June. Core inflation (ex. food, fuel and regulated prices) remains sticky at

5%oya, broadly in line with its average level for the start of the year. Sequential

inflation in headline and core (%3m/3m, saar) is also running hot at 6.6% on the

headline and 4.9%oya for core.

The stickiness in core prices is partially a function of elevated services inflation,

which is running at 5.5%oya. A decline in fuel prices (-1%m/m) enabled tradables

inflation to slow to 5.2%oya. A more appreciated DOP, declining fuel prices (albeit

likely to be jagged) and a deceleration in food prices should enable further

disinflation in tradables. That said, services inflation could prove stickier as the

growth recovery takes hold. We will also be watchful of second-round effects on

services following successive supply shocks.

While food inflation continues to hover around 6.8%oya, momentum is slowing on

the margin. The elevated annual print is still capturing a weather-related rise in food

prices at the tail-end of last year. On a monthly basis, food prices rose 0.2% m/m

and are running at 3.3% sequentially. Our forecasts assume that food prices will

continue to fall to about 4% by year-end, though risks are skewed to the upside due

to El Niño. Regarding El Niño, DomRep food prices are exposed to droughts

caused by El Niño, with the probability rising that “Super El Niño” hits starting in

4Q26. Energy prices could also be impacted. Localized effects of El Niño can vary

by episode. Food prices in DomRep were adversely affected during the 2015/16 El

Niño, but less so during 2022/23. At this stage, we are assuming a moderate impact

from El Niño.

Our forecasts envision inflation moderating to 4.2%oya, mainly on a favorable

base effect. That said, we are penciling in headline inflation staying sticky around

the 5% target ceiling into next year, reflecting the stickiness in core and upside risks

to food prices.…