Brazil S&E Fundamentals: Jun-26: Crush and Sugar Slow y/y; Mix Remains Ethanol-Heavy

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Latin America Equity Research

07 August 2026

Brazil S&E Fundamentals

Jun-26: Crush and Sugar Slow y/y; Mix Remains

Ethanol-Heavy

UNICA’s June release confirmed that the harvest is decelerating y/y off its

front-loaded start, even as the season remains ahead of the curve and the mix

remains firmly ethanol-tilted. Cane crush in 2H June came in at 31,035 kt (-27.4%

y/y), extending the y/y contraction that began in late May, though the cumulative

season remained ahead at 214,470 kt (+3.7% y/y). On a monthly basis, June crush

fell to 69.79 Mt (-14.5% y/y), with 255 units operating at end-June (235 crushing

cane, 11 corn-ethanol plants and 9 flex units).

The mix stayed ethanol-heavy at 43.6% sugar / 56.4% ethanol in 2H June and

42.5% / 57.5% accumulated, with accumulated TRS holding at 123.75 kg/ton

(+1.4% y/y). As a result, June sugar fell to 3.90 Mt (-26.3% y/y) and cumulative

sugar to 10,754 kt (-12.4% y/y), while total ethanol reached 1,698 mn liters in 2H

June (-11.2% y/y) and 11,365 mn liters accumulated (+20.4% y/y), with corn

ethanol adding 796.1 mn liters in June (+8.4% y/y) and 2.39 bn liters accumulated

(+9.96% y/y).

LatAm Food & Beverages and

Agribusiness

Lucas Ferreira AC

(55-11) 4950-3629

Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

Larissa Perez

(55-11) 4950-6400

Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

Froylan Mendez

(52-55) 5540-9482

J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P.

Morgan Grupo Financiero

Demand stayed resilient. June total ethanol sales reached 3.12 bn liters, split

between 1.27 bn liters of anhydrous and 1.85 bn liters of hydrous. In the domestic

market, anhydrous sales rose to 1.24 bn liters (+24.4% y/y) and hydrous to 1.78 bn

liters (+4.2% y/y), keeping the pump-competitiveness theme intact. Season-todate sales through end-June totaled 8.80 bn liters (+2.6%), comprising 5.42 bn

liters of hydrous and 3.38 bn liters of anhydrous.

Exports, by contrast, remained weak: with cumulative exports of 163.7

thousand m³ down sharply from 254.6 thousand m³ in the prior cycle. Net-net,

crush and sugar output are decelerating y/y as the harvest moves past its peak, yet

cumulative ethanol volumes and resilient domestic hydrous demand remain the

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